Tariffs, rates & resilience: Navigating the U.S. economic crossroads

Deloitte’s latest U.S. Economic Forecast outlines three potential scenarios for the remainder of 2025, each shaped by varying degrees of trade policy, #monetary response, and #inflationary pressure:

  1. Baseline: Modest GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, with tariffs averaging 15% and a cautious Fed cutting rates by 50 basis points in Q4
  2. Upside: Easing trade tensions and proactive rate cuts could boost investment and productivity, leading to stronger growth
  3. Downside: Escalating tariffs (up to 25%) and fiscal tightening may trigger a recession by late 2025, with GDP contracting 1.7% in 2026

Source: https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/us-economic-forecast/united-states-outlook-analysis.html