Market rally: late innings?
Stocks keep setting records, rates are drifting lower, and earnings are holding up — but signs of overheating are hard to ignore. Highlights from the latest WSJ piece by Krystal Hur:
- S&P 500 up ~13% YTD; Nasdaq ~17%; Dow ~9%. Smaller caps (Russell 2000) finally back to all-time highs
- 10-year Treasury near 4.14% as bond markets price more cuts
- Speculation is back: meme names dominating volumes; SPAC issuance at the highest since 2021; average day-one IPO pops ~34%
- “Magnificent Seven” now ~37% of S&P 500 market cap — concentration risk rising
- Defensive signals: transports lagging YTD; gold and silver surging
- Valuations: S&P 500 screens as most expensive on several metrics
As one strategist put it: “We are in a high risk bull market.”
Caution may be the smarter trade heading into October.
